Barriers to digital services trade: Evaluation of their restrictiveness with application of Brier Score

Abstract

Research background: The improvement in digital transmission has driven the rapid development of digital services trade; however, it comes with more barriers to it. International comparisons of the restriction levels of digital services trade are crucial for promoting its liberalization, thereby obtaining economic gains. To provide a reliable measurement of barriers to digital services trade, it is necessary to construct a reasonable evaluation index system and ensure the objectivity of the determination of measurement indicator weights.

Purpose of the article: This study aims to develop a novel method for measuring the restrictiveness of barriers to digital services trade, revealing the current barriers to digital services trade in various economies.

Methods: This study establishes an evaluation index system for barriers to digital services trade by using the Brier Score to screen original evaluation indicators. Then, based on the established evaluation index system, the Brier Score is used to hierarchically determine the weights of evaluation indicators. Additionally, it compares the barriers to digital services trade from the total evaluation index and the evaluation index in five policy areas.

Findings & value added: Comparative analyses show that most economies have restrictive policies in digital services trade, and they are mainly implemented through two policy areas: infrastructure and payment system. In these two areas, economies face barriers related to digital infrastructure, discriminatory access to payment settlement methods. We also make methodological contributions by using a novel method to measure the restrictiveness of barriers to digital services trade. To the best of our knowledge, no study has integrated the Brier Score with trade policy analysis. Our method improves the overall trade restriction evaluation capability of the evaluation index system and ensures that the weights reflect the level of trade restrictions on the measurement indicators.

Keywords

digital services trade, trade barriers, Brier Score, evaluation index system

References

1. Banik, A., & Bhaumik, P. K. (2014). Assessing the barriers to trade in services in South Asia. Global Business Review, 15(4), 795–814. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150914543239
   View in Google Scholar
2. Borchert, I., Gootiiz, B., Magdeleine, J., Marchetti, J. A., Mattoo, A., Rubio, E., & Shannon, E. (2020). Applied services trade policy: A guide to the services trade policy database and the services trade restrictions index. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 9264. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9264
   View in Google Scholar
3. Borchert, I., Gootiiz, B., & Mattoo, A. (2012). Guide to the services trade restrictions database. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 6108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6108
   View in Google Scholar
4. Bottini, N., Marouani, M. A., & Munro, L. (2011). Service sector restrictiveness and economic performance: An estimation for the MENA Region. World Economy, 34(9), 1652–1678. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01337.x
   View in Google Scholar
5. Brier, G. W. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78(1), 1–3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2
   View in Google Scholar
6. Carballo, J., Chatruc, M. R., Santa, C. S., & Martincus, C. V. (2022). Online business platforms and international trade. Journal of International Economics, 137, 103599. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103599
   View in Google Scholar
7. Di, Y. N., Lu, Y. X., & Razzaq, A. (2025). International differences and dynamic evolution of trade in digitally deliverable services. Technology in Society, 81, 102781. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102781
   View in Google Scholar
8. Dihel, N., & Shepherd, B. (2007). Modal estimates of services barriers. OECD Trade Policy Papers, 51.
   View in Google Scholar
9. Estefania-Flores, J., Furceri, D., Hannan, S. A., Ostry, J. D., & Rose, A. K. (2024). A measurement of aggregate trade restrictions and their economic effects. World Bank Economic Review. https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhae033. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhae033
   View in Google Scholar
10. Ferencz, J. (2019). The OECD digital services trade restrictiveness index. OECD Trade Policy Papers, 221.
    View in Google Scholar
11. Ferracane, M. F., Ugarte, S. G., & van der Marel, E. (2025). The Brussels effect in Africa: Is it beneficial for intra-regional trade in digital services? Journal of International Economic Law, 28(1), 1–22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jiel/jgae059
    View in Google Scholar
12. Ferracane, M. F., & van der Marel, E. (2025). Governing personal data and trade in digital services. Review of International Economics, 33(1), 243–264. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12735
    View in Google Scholar
13. Fontagé, L., & Mitaritonna, C. (2013). Assessing barriers to trade in the distribution and telecom sectors in emerging countries. World Trade Review, 12(1), 57–78. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474745612000456
    View in Google Scholar
14. Grosso, M. G., Gonzales, F., Miroudot, S., Nordås, H. K., Rouzet, D., & Ueno, A. (2015). Services trade restrictiveness index (STRI): Scoring and weighting methodology. OECD Trade Policy Papers, 177.
    View in Google Scholar
15. Hao, L., Jian, H., & Xu, Y. (2023). The effect of the digital economy on services exports competitiveness and ternary margins. Telecommunications Policy, 47(7), 102596. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102596
    View in Google Scholar
16. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The elements of statistical learning: Data mining, inference, and prediction. New York: Springer. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7
    View in Google Scholar
17. Herman, P. R., & Oliver, S. (2023). Trade, policy, and economic development in the digital economy. Journal of Development Economics, 164, 103135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103135
    View in Google Scholar
18. Hoekman, B. M. (1995). Tentative first steps: An assessment of the Uruguay Round agreement on services. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1455. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1455
    View in Google Scholar
19. IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, & WTO. (2023). Handbook on measuring digital trade. OECD Publishing.
    View in Google Scholar
20. Jiang, L., Liu, S., & Zhang, G. (2022). Digital trade barriers and export performance: Evidence from China. Southern Economic Journal, 88(4), 1401–30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12572
    View in Google Scholar
21. Lahiri, K., Monokroussos, G., & Zhao, Y., (2013). The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts. Economics Letters, 118(1), 219–221. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.10.022
    View in Google Scholar
22. Malodia, S., Mishra, M., Fait, M., Papa, A., & Dezi, L. (2023). To digit or to head? Designing digital transformation journey of SMEs among digital self-efficacy and professional leadership. Journal of Business Research, 157, 113547. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113547
    View in Google Scholar
23. Shingal, A. (2023). Mode 4 restrictiveness and services trade. Review of World Economics, 159(3), 757–786. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-022-00481-2
    View in Google Scholar
24. Suh, J., & Roh, J. (2023). The effects of digital trade policies on digital trade. World Economy, 46(8), 2383–2407. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13407
    View in Google Scholar
25. Taylor, J. W., & Yu, K. M. (2016). Using auto-regressive logit models to forecast the exceedance probability for financial risk management. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 179(4), 1069–1092. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12176
    View in Google Scholar
26. Tibshirani, R. (1996). Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Statistical Methodology, 58(1), 267–288. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
    View in Google Scholar
27. van der Marel, E., & Ferracane, M. F. (2021). Do data policy restrictions inhibit trade in services? Review of World Economics, 157(4), 727–776. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00417-2
    View in Google Scholar
28. Vo, D. H., Warkentin, M., & Tran, N. P. (2025). Examining the effects of national intellectual capital on economic growth: Does digital services trade restrictiveness matter? Journal of Knowledge Management, 29(1), 281–300. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JKM-12-2023-1288
    View in Google Scholar
29. Wen, H., Chen, W., & Zhou, F. (2023). Does digital service trade boost technological innovation?: International evidence. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 88, 101647. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101647. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101647
    View in Google Scholar
30. Wu, D. C. G., Cao, Z., Wen, L., & Song, H. Y. (2021). Scenario forecasting for global tourism. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 45(1), 28–51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1096348020919990
    View in Google Scholar
31. Yang, F., Wang, Y. X., & Whang, U. (2024). Trade restrictions on digital services and the impact on manufacturing exports. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 33(4), 523–550. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2023.2195958
    View in Google Scholar
32. Zhang, H. X., Kim H., & Moon, S. (2025). The effects of data restriction policies and institutions on digital financial service and trade. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2025.2467190
    View in Google Scholar
33. Zhu, W., Li, X., Wang, H., & Sun, B. (2022). Digital service trade and income inequality: A panel data analysis for 100 countries. Applied Economics Letters, 30(11), 1457–1461. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2061895
    View in Google Scholar